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Early Voting Numbers Appear to Give Republicans Advantage Amid Talk of ‘Red Wave’

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.


Early voting numbers are not looking good for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democrats, indicating she may be handing over her gavel to the GOP in January.

In 2020, “just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College,” NPR’s Domenico Montanaro said, narrowly handing President Joe Biden his victory over then-President Donald Trump. Biden’s victory was due, in part, to early voting by Democrats, according to analysts who add that Republican voters tend to show up on Election Day. But this year, more Republicans are voting early, leading some to believe that a “red wave” is imminent.

John Couvillon, the founder and CEO of JMC Analytics & Polling Campaign & Elections, posted early voting figures on Twitter this week, showing greater numbers of Republicans showing up to vote early than in previous election cycles.

Couvillon broke it all down:

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“EARLY VOTING, THEN AND NOW (2020 v 2022)

“The TURNOUT is not really the relevant number. The Dem/Rep SPREAD is. I’ll leave it at that, and post the comparison.

Democrats are NOT voting their numbers in FL: in 2020, mail at this point was 51-29% D/R. Currently, it’s 42-39%

“In CA the GOP early vote is up 13% over 2020, In Florida 19%, and in Pennsylvania 19%.

“14 states updated (including decent size updates to AZ, IL, PA, and a mystery state that will be revealed tomorrow)

“40.3M requests, 47-26% D/R

“3.78M VBM, 52-30% D/R

“549K IP, 49-41% D/R

“4.33M total votes, 52-30% D/R.”

Couvillon also had some bad news for Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams:

“GEORGIA EVing, DAY

“Turnout was off the charts: more than doubling from 135,593 (Day 1) to 291,740 (Day 2)

“The black % on day 1 was VERY high (38.5%) on Day 1 (this includes IP AND mail.

“However, the black % on Day 2 dropped.

“More specifically, the sustainable – my experience in the Gret Stet is that robust black turnout remains constant throughout early voting.

“Either way, this is something we’ll definitely track, since black % of the electorate in the Deep South = THE primary measure of Democratic voter intensity.”

Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has “dismissed” new polling from The New York Times and Siena College showing an important demographic — independent female voters — flocking to the GOP ahead of next month’s midterms.

According to the survey, independent women went from supporting Democrats by 14 points in September to supporting Republicans by 18 months in October, an astounding 32-point shift in a single month:

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The poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on Nov. 8, compared with 45 percent who planned to vote for a Democrat. The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September when Democrats held a one-point edge among likely voters in the last Times/Siena poll.

The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored the Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points.

And as in most, if not all, recent polls from respected outlets, the Times/Siena survey found that inflation and the economy were the most important issues to voters — surpassing Jan. 6, climate change, abortion, and the pandemic by large margins.

Pelosi, in an interview with MSNBC, waved off the Times/Siena survey, however, claiming it is an “outlier.”

Host Andrea Mitchell, in questioning Pelosi, suggested that polling for Democrats was down despite an “extraordinary” legislative session.

“Despite all the legislative accomplishments, I want to cite them, I want to say it’s been an extraordinary session, you and the president have done so much in terms of domestic concerns, the economy. Why is this message, why do you think the president hasn’t gotten this message through to the voters?” MSNBC host Andrea Mitchell asked.

“Well, first of all, let me say that I think that much of what you’ve said I don’t agree with, that is to say ‘The New York Times’ poll, I think this is an outlier poll, you just cite one poll, but all the other polls,” the California Democrat began as the two then began talking over each other.

“It’s also – the ‘RealClearPolitics’ average is showing similar issues,” Mitchell added.

“No, but these, but that was one that brought down the average, and it was an outlier. It wasn’t even that big a sample. So I – I dismissed that. I have been – since Congress adjourned, I’ve been in an average of five states a week. And I can tell you that women’s concerns about their freedom are very, very much still very significant in terms of how they will vote,” Pelosi claimed.





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