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Longtime Incumbent Democrat in Big Trouble: Poll

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.

Another prominent Democrat is in serious trouble of losing their re-election.

A new Trafalgar Group poll reveals that Washington Democrat Sen. Patty Murray — who has held the seat since 1992 — is losing ground to Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley.

The statewide survey showed that 48.7% of voters would cast a ballot for Murray if the election was held today, while 46.5% would vote for Smiley. The poll had a margin of error of 2.9%, making the race a statistical tie. A poll conducted by the same group between Aug. 30 and Sept. 1 showed Murray leading Smiley 49.2% to 46.3%, a slightly wider gap, though still within the survey’s 2.9% error margin.


The two polls show the race tightening just before November’s midterms, with support for Murray decreasing and Smiley going up.

The Senate is currently split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ power to cast tie-breaking votes giving Democrats the edge. This race could determine which party controls the upper chamber.

Washington Post opinion commentator George F. Will published a piece noting how there could be a “Senate shocker” brewing in the deep blue state.

Similar fraying of Seattle’s social fabric resulted last November in the election, for the first time in three decades, of a Republican city attorney. The position is technically nonpartisan, but the winner is a Republican-affiliated former Democrat who defeated someone who advocated abolishing the police.

Citing crime, Amazon has moved some offices out of Seattle, and another company headquartered here, Starbucks, has closed some stores. For a while in the summer of 2020, the city ceded control of the Capitol Hill neighborhood to leftists who, promising a “loose form of governance,” turned it into a “no-cop co-op.” Seattle’s progressive mayor was tickled pink about the “block-party atmosphere” and the “community garden,” saying chirpily: “We could have the Summer of Love.” Seattle’s police chief was less serene, saying she was “stunned by the amount of graffiti, garbage, and property destruction.” If the feces did not dampen the block party, two murders, other shootings, and a slew of injuries did.

Smiley’s closing argument to Washingtonians will be: If you like the country’s current trajectory, vote for the other woman. If not … Smiley’s campaign says its internal polling resembles the September Trafalgar poll: Murray 48.7, Smiley 46.5.

Republicans who hope to retake control of Congress during the midterms got some encouraging news on Thursday just weeks away from the crucial midterms.

According to new polling from Data for Progress, three swing-state Democrats are in danger of losing their seats.

In Arizona, Trump-backed GOP challenger Blake Masters is gaining on incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, the group found. Kelly has a narrow 1-point lead over his rival, 48-47 percent, The Daily Caller reported, citing the survey.

Meanwhile, in Georgia, the race is a dead heat, with incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger and former NFL great Hershel Walker, who was also endorsed by former President Trump, tied at 46 percent.


“In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt leads opponent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, with 47% of respondents saying they would vote for Laxalt compared to 46% for Cortez Masto, according to the poll,” The Daily Caller noted.

Meanwhile, the races for governor in two of the states show Republicans with bigger advantages, according to Data for Progress polling.

In Arizona, Trump-backed Kari Lake is leading Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs 51-47 percent, while in Georgia, incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has a 7-point lead over Democratic rival Stacey Abrams, 51-44 percent.

According to a new survey from the Trafalgar Group, which correctly predicted that she would capture the GOP nomination, Lake leads Democratic challenger and current Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs by nearly five points.

The survey polled 1,080 likely 2022 General Election voters from September 14-17 and has a 2.9 percent margin of error, meaning that Lake’s lead is enough to overcome it. Still, there 4.4 percent of respondents said that they had yet to make up their minds.

Trafalgar also found Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly with a slight lead over Trump-backed GOP challenger Blake Masters, 46.6 – 45.4 percent, which is well within the margin of error.

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