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Most Economists See Flat Q4, Recession by Early or Mid-2023 — Unsustainable Export Growth Kept GDP from Being Negative – Market Subset News

On Thursday’s broadcast of NBC’s “MTP Now,” CNBC Economics Editor Jeff Cox stated that if you took out the unsustainably high rise in exports, the third quarter GDP would have been negative and most economists believe that by “early or mid-2023, we will, in fact, be in a recession.”

Cox said, “I think if you were looking at this report today for kind of the all clear on the economy, this wasn’t that. I mean, there were still a lot of questions that this report raised today. One of the big things is that the headline number boosted almost completely because of a big rise in exports, which were up almost 14% on the quarter. That simply is not sustainable. In fact, if you separated and subtracted out the net export number from this report, it actually would have printed slightly negative. Other areas of concern [are] that we saw a dropoff in consumer spending, the pace of increase there falling, of course, as prices continue to rise. And…homebuilding, we all know that the real estate market is not doing well right now, those numbers reflect it today.”

He added, “Most of the economists I speak to, Chuck, are expecting basically a flat-ish number in the fourth quarter. The one big positive for the economy right now is the jobs market. … So, that’s a good thing, and that’s keeping the economy afloat now. What I’m hearing, though, from most economists is that, going into 2023, at some point, early or mid-2023, we will, in fact, be in a recession.”

Follow Ian Hanchett on Twitter @IanHanchett

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