The Republican Party of Iowa slammed the most recent poll from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa for “historically” underestimating the strength of the “new Republican coalition” as the poll claimed the Hawkeye State’s U.S. Senate race is closer than it seems.
“As we have seen two election cycles so far, the Iowa Poll historically underestimates the new Republican coalition’s strength,” Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said in a statement. “They had Gov. Reynolds losing, Sen. Ernst losing, and President Trump tied, and all went on to win!”
For background, Kaufmann pointed to the Register polls from September 22, 2020, which showed former President Donald Trump in a “dead heat” with President Joe Biden in Iowa; September 19, 2020, which showed Democrat Theresa Greenfield “narrowly” leading Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) in a hyper-competitive Senate race; and September 22, 2018, which showed Democrat Fred Hubbell “narrowly” leading Republican Kim Reynolds in the gubernatorial race.
The Iowa GOP chairman added:
Iowans are tired of Joe Biden’s weak presidency. Democrats have destroyed our economy, energy independence, and Southern Border. Not only will Mike Franken stand by Biden’s side, Franken is a scandal-ridden candidate having been accused of sexually assaulting his former campaign manager and more women. Franken hasn’t done a thing to earn Iowans’ votes.
The poll shows the Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley (IA) only has a three-point lead against his radical Democrat opponent, Mike Franken — who was recently accused by his former campaign manager of making “several” unwanted advances toward women, including herself, which he continuously denied.
Via the Register:
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Grassley leads with 46% of the vote to Franken’s 43% among likely voters. Another 4% would vote for someone else, 4% would not vote and 3% are not sure.
The poll of 804 Iowa adults, including 620 likely voters, was conducted Oct. 9-12 by Selzer & Co. The questions asked of all Iowans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; it’s plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the questions asked of likely voters.
The numbers suggest a contest closer than any Grassley has faced since he defeated a Democratic incumbent by 8 percentage points to win his first election to the Senate in 1980.
Additionally, the Register explained that Grassley’s “narrowed” lead over Franken, with less than a month until Election Day, means Grassley will have his “toughest reelection fight in 40 years.”
The publication noted that this election might be closer than when Grassley first won in 1980 by eight points against a Democrat incumbent. Since then, the longtime senator’s closest election was in 2016, when he beat former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge by 24 points.
Besides the Register poll, the latest Emerson College poll from October 2 to 4, with a sample size of 959 likely voters and a 3.1 percent margin of error, had Grassley with a double-digit lead.
Grassley held an eleven-point lead over Democrat candidate Michael Franken, 49 percent to 38 percent, respectively. The poll also showed that nine percent were undecided, and four percent said they planned to vote for someone else.